Happy New Year and (a belated) happy holidays! In the 4th quarter of 2020, we experienced continued deceleration of GDP in the United States with new mild acceleration of inflation. We remain in an industrial recession, but the consumer remains relatively stable and strong. The equity markets have continued to reach new highs and the Federal Reserve remains dovish… and …
I hope that each of you had a wonderful Thanksgiving week! As I wrote in last month’s update, the US economy has been showing signs of moving from bad-to-less-bad in the short term, which means that we can be cautiously optimistic in our investment style. While we are still seeing slowing economic (GDP) growth relative to the previous 1-2 years, …
After several months of maintaining highly defensive positions within our portfolios, we finally started to see signs of “bad-to-less-bad” within the United States’ economy in October. The previous market conditions were such that a precipitous drop in high-volatility, technology, and other growth stocks was to be expected, statistically-speaking. Because of this, we were in full protection mode with our asset …
Dear client or friend of Vailshire Partners LP, Happy Autumn! I hope this season’s quarterly client memo finds you well. The State of the Economy Similar to what I wrote in my last memo to you, the United States remains on the precipice of a recession. In fact, the manufacturing sector is already in a recession and the services sector is …
Autumn is upon us and the leaves are just starting to turn here in Colorado Springs. I warmly welcome the cooler weather after this year’s long, hot summer! I hope all is well with you. Market Conditions Not to sound bleak, but I continue to see real-time signs of a slowing US economy, minimal inflation, increasing geopolitical risks, and richly valued …
Dear client or friend of Vailshire Capital Management, Happy Labor Day! I hope that each of you is finding time to rest and reconnect with people you love today. Today’s monthly update should be quick, so you can get back to your grills! Market Conditions Our defensive stance has paid off lately, as evidenced by our investment account returns. While …
Dear client or friend of Vailshire Capital Management, I just completed the very last final exams for my MBA courses. A mere four weeks away from my 45th birthday and I’m finally done with school! I can’t think of a better way to celebrate than by sending my clients (and interested parties) a monthly update on behalf of Vailshire Capital …
Dear client or friend of Vailshire Partners LP, Greetings! After an unusually cool and wet start to the summer, the more normal hot and dry days have returned to Colorado Springs. My family is enjoying the warm days in our new home. I hope all is well with you. This quarterly memo will be a bit shorter than normal, as …
Below is the latest insights offered by Jeff Ross at his column over at Seeking Alpha. Click here to view the full article . Summary Based in the US, Medifast Inc is an alpha-generating, health and wellness “diamond in the rough” with a $1.9 billion market cap. Investors who have been astute enough to have held MED shares over the …
The first quarter of 2019 saw a marked change in the equity and bond markets from the very difficult conditions we faced in the last quarter of 2018. Jerome Powell, head of the United States Federal Reserve (“the Fed”), and his team of central bankers almost single-handedly caused the steep market losses through his/their hawkish comments of “quantitative tightening” (QT) in …
