October/November 2019 Update

After several months of maintaining highly defensive positions within our portfolios, we finally started to see signs of “bad-to-less-bad” within the United States’ economy in October.

The previous market conditions were such that a precipitous drop in high-volatility, technology, and other growth stocks was to be expected, statistically-speaking. Because of this, we were in full protection mode with our asset allocation.

While GDP growth in the United States is still decelerating year-over-year, inflation is showing signs of life. This set-up, coupled with an increasingly dovish (i.e., supportive) Federal Reserve, means that we can be cautiously optimistic with our asset allocation over the coming months.

Because of these changing conditions, I have positioned your portfolio(s) to be somewhat more growth-oriented than in previous months. Current allocations are (approximately) as follows:

  • 35% US and International Stocks (slightly tilted towards growth)
  • 25% US and International Bonds
  • 15% US and International Real Estate
  • 0-5% Cash
  • 15% Gold
  • 0-10% Bitcoin

If you are interested, feel free to log into your Vailshire-managed IB accounts and notice how your own portfolios are positioned! As I wrote to you in a prior email, if you do not have any allocation to bitcoin via the bitcoin trust: GBTC, but would like to, please log into your IB accounts and follow the instructions from that previous email.


Our country remains in an industrial recession. However, a strong consumer, slightly accelerating inflation, a low unemployment rate, and an accommodative Federal Reserve give us reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the performance of growth stocks and related assets in the coming months. Given this, I have positioned our portfolios to be defensive, yet somewhat growth-oriented for the first time in many months.

I am optimistic about our strategic asset allocation and future returns… and I hope you are as well.

If you have any questions, or know of a friend or family member who may benefit from Vailshire’s innovative investment techniques, please let me know!

Investing wisely with you,