September 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Greetings from Colorado! I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions High levels of inflation continue to dominate the headlines, while the world’s economic engine sputters. The disinflation relief rally in risk assets that began in mid-June from deeply oversold levels came to an abrupt end in mid-August. As a primary example, the S&P 500 (see the …

August 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Current Market Conditions As expected, economic conditions in the United States and throughout most of the world have gone from bad to worse. Earlier in July, the consumer price index (CPI) for June was released, revealing a 9.1% year-over-year increase. This inflation metric was at a 40 year high! Last week, official gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the second …

Vailshire Partners Hedge Fund Client Memo — 3Q 2022

To clients and friends of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund: The Fed is tightening into an economic slowdown… buckle up “Demand destruction” is working, but at what cost to humanity? Vailshire Partners LP’s proprietary trading system is working quite well, even in this difficult macroeconomic environment Performance Review Economic Slowdown and Fed Tightening Roil Markets Sticky high inflation and ongoing …

July 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Happy Independence Day! I hope all is well with each of you and that you have some time to ponder and celebrate freedom in the coming days. Current Market Conditions The bad economic news is starting to pile up… and it is truly awful. While the Fed raises the federal funds rate to “cool off” our “strong” economy, the market …

June 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Hello from Colorado! Our kids are finished with the school year and are home for the summer. My wife and I are ecstatic to spend some quality time with them in the coming months. I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions The macroeconomic conditions in the United States and across most of the developed world are …

May 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Happy May Day! The grass is getting greener, buds are forming on the trees, and some flowers are starting to bloom under the warm Colorado sun. I hope you are enjoying springtime as much as I am. Current Market Conditions As suspected in my previous Vailshire client update, macroeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate throughout 2022. US gross domestic product …

Vailshire Partners Hedge Fund Client Memo — 2Q 2022

To clients and friends of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund: Inflation remains high while US GDP is rolling over Given historically high inflation rates, the Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place Many high quality assets have sold off and are ready to buy Performance Review From Bullish to Bearish in the 4th Quarter of 2021 …

April 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

April has arrived and spring is in the air here in Colorado! I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions My research continues to suggest that there is trouble under the economic hood, both here in the United States and internationally. US GDP growth saw a top in the 4th quarter of 2021 and has been steadily …

March 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Greetings from Colorado Springs! After some serious winter storms in February, we are enjoying some unusually warm weather this week. For the time-being, Spring is in the air! Current Market Conditions The macroeconomic outlook for the coming weeks and months continues to be definitively bearish, in my humble opinion. While our assessment of peak US economic growth in 4Q 2021 …

February 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Hello and happy Groundhog Day to each of you! I’m obviously no match for Punsxutawney Phil (see picture) but, as I will describe in this month’s update, I think we are in for harsh macroeconomic “weather” over the coming months. Current Market Conditions As surmised in last month’s Vailshire client update, it is increasingly obvious that both real economic growth …