June 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Hello from Colorado! Our kids are finished with the school year and are home for the summer. My wife and I are ecstatic to spend some quality time with them in the coming months. I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions The macroeconomic conditions in the United States and across most of the developed world are …

May 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Happy May Day! The grass is getting greener, buds are forming on the trees, and some flowers are starting to bloom under the warm Colorado sun. I hope you are enjoying springtime as much as I am. Current Market Conditions As suspected in my previous Vailshire client update, macroeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate throughout 2022. US gross domestic product …

Vailshire Partners Hedge Fund Client Memo — 2Q 2022

To clients and friends of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund: Inflation remains high while US GDP is rolling over Given historically high inflation rates, the Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place Many high quality assets have sold off and are ready to buy Performance Review From Bullish to Bearish in the 4th Quarter of 2021 …

April 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

April has arrived and spring is in the air here in Colorado! I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions My research continues to suggest that there is trouble under the economic hood, both here in the United States and internationally. US GDP growth saw a top in the 4th quarter of 2021 and has been steadily …

March 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Greetings from Colorado Springs! After some serious winter storms in February, we are enjoying some unusually warm weather this week. For the time-being, Spring is in the air! Current Market Conditions The macroeconomic outlook for the coming weeks and months continues to be definitively bearish, in my humble opinion. While our assessment of peak US economic growth in 4Q 2021 …

February 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Hello and happy Groundhog Day to each of you! I’m obviously no match for Punsxutawney Phil (see picture) but, as I will describe in this month’s update, I think we are in for harsh macroeconomic “weather” over the coming months. Current Market Conditions As surmised in last month’s Vailshire client update, it is increasingly obvious that both real economic growth …

Vailshire Partners Hedge Fund Client Memo — 1Q 2022

To clients and friends of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund: The fourth quarter of 2021 started with a bang before ending with a whimper The Federal Reserve just made a critical policy error, bringing back unpleasant memories of 4Q 2018 Unfavorable economic indicators mean a material shift in investment strategy for Vailshire Partners LP throughout 2022 Performance Review From Bullish …

January 2022 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to each of you! I hope that each of you has had a fantastic end to 2021, which proved to be yet another interesting and unusual year. Current Market Conditions Inflation appears to have peaked in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is likely to decelerate year-over-year, yet remain relatively high for the first …

November/December 2021 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

Thanksgiving has come and gone and already Christmas carols are playing 24/7 on most radio stations! The holiday season is upon us. I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions After approximately 18 months of accelerating inflation, my data suggests that the United States may have peaked in this 4th quarter of 2021. Going forward, I expect …

October/November 2021 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

It’s hard to believe that November is already here. Thanksgiving and much colder temperatures (at least here in Colorado) are just around the corner! I hope all is well with you. Current Market Conditions As expected from Vailshire’s prior market forecast, the September doldrums gave way to October optimism. At the time, many hedge funds and other large institutional investors …