It’s hard to believe that November is already here. Thanksgiving and much colder temperatures (at least here in Colorado) are just around the corner!
I hope all is well with you.
Current Market Conditions
As expected from Vailshire’s prior market forecast, the September doldrums gave way to October optimism.
At the time, many hedge funds and other large institutional investors believed that stocks, bitcoin, and related “risk-on” assets were going to tumble, and they were hedging strongly against this perceived downside risk.
Based on my research, we were not only NOT bearish in our portfolios, but were positioned for a very strong bull move higher in risk-on assets. A screenshot of a tweet I posted on September 29th (see above) reflected my feelings on the matter, which I made public on multiple occasions.
This optimism was reflected in the very healthy returns across Vailshire’s separately managed accounts. Hopefully you are pleased with the performance. Over time, good data and quantitative investment allocations tend to outperform strong hunches and traditional stock picking strategies.
Year-over-year inflation and GDP metrics continue to accelerate in the United States. As such, our optimistic outlook continues for our portfolio of “risk-on” assets.
Strategies for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Accounts
We have rebalanced since last month’s bullish update and remain aggressive across our stock, commodity, bitcoin, and related positions for the foreseeable future.
As previously stated, “technology, energy, financial, and small cap US equities should do well, as should most commodities. Bitcoin and related assets should do even better.” This was proven true throughout October and I fully expect it to continue in November.
Depending on your financial objectives and individual account investment privileges, Vailshire’s separately managed accounts are currently allocated in the following manner:
- 30-55% US stocks (including US small caps, energy, financials, and technology)
- 10% emerging market stocks
- 5% cash
- 25-50% bitcoin, ethereum and/or related proxies (based on personal preference and trading permissions)
- 5% commodity-based equities
If you are a Vailshire Client, feel free to log into your Vailshire-managed account(s) at Interactive Brokers and see how your own portfolios are positioned. (It’s a good idea to log into your accounts at least quarterly, just to make sure your settings and demographics are up to date.)
Conclusion
Our systematic and innovative “risk-on” approach across our Vailshire portfolios has proven to be a winning strategy so far in 4Q of 2021. I fully expect this optimistic outlook to continue providing a market-beating performance throughout November as well.
While I can’t predict the future, our quantitative methods often allow us to simply be in the right place at the right time in specific asset classes, and this is clearly reflected by our long-term portfolio returns.
For those of you who may not have heard, I have completely retired from my work as a physician and am now solely (and happily!) preoccupied with Vailshire Capital Managment and Vailshire Partners hedge fund. As such, my capacity for growing this transformative business has significantly increased as well.
If you know of any friends or family members who may benefit from Vailshire’s unique investment methodology, I would be truly honored by the referral! I am grateful for each of you.
Living well and investing wisely with you,
Jeff Ross, MD, MBA