October/November 2020 Update

Dear client or friend of Vailshire Capital Management,

Happy November from Colorado Springs! The weather is warm and the trees are beautiful. I hope you are enjoying the fall season as much as I am.

Current Market Conditions

I just re-read my last monthly update (here’s the link) to remind myself of what I wrote to you previously and, to be honest, my economic research and our investment strategies haven’t changed very much. As I stated last month, I expected September and October to be volatile months for stocks (they always are during election years)… and they were.

As previously stated, once the presidential election results are finalized we should have a much clearer economic outlook and investment picture. As this occurs, I will make the necessary strategic changes to our portfolios that reflect the new economic direction (if any).

While we remain in a cyclical economic recession that is bogged down by the coronavirus and the world’s governments responses to it (for better and for worse), we cannot ignore the ongoing effects of the Federal Reserve massively increasing the US money supply while simultaneously maintaining near -0% interest rates. Such policies tend to weaken the US Dollar and increase the nominal value of stocks, real estate, gold, commodities, and bitcoin.

Strategies for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Accounts

We are sitting tight on our current portfolio allocation until my research points us in a new direction.

Depending on your investment objectives and individual account investment privileges, Vailshire’s separately managed accounts are allocated in the following manner:

  • 30% US Stocks (large, mid, and small caps)
  • 10% Emerging market stocks
  • 10% Real Estate
  • 2-10% Cash
  • 20% Gold and Gold Streamers/Royalties/Miners
  • 15-23% Bitcoin/Ethereum/Cryptocurrency proxies (based on personal preference and trading permissions)
  • 5% Commodities

If you are a Vailshire Client, feel free to log into your Vailshire-managed account(s) at Interactive Brokers and notice how your own portfolios are positioned. (It’s a good idea to log into your accounts at least quarterly, just to make sure your settings and demographics are up to date.)


September and October were tumultuous months, as expected. Since we were prepared our portfolios held up nicely and remain well-positioned for profits in the final months of 2020 and throughout 2021.

If you have been considering making new or additional investments in Vailshire’s full cycle portfolio management strategies, then this would be an exceptional month to put new money to work!