Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “Blog”
April has arrived and spring is in the air here in Colorado! I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions My research continues to suggest that there is trouble under the economic hood, both here in the United States and internationally. US GDP growth saw a top in the 4th quarter of 2021 and has been steadily …
Greetings from Colorado Springs! After some serious winter storms in February, we are enjoying some unusually warm weather this week. For the time-being, Spring is in the air! Current Market Conditions The macroeconomic outlook for the coming weeks and months continues to be definitively bearish, in my humble opinion. While our assessment of peak US economic growth in 4Q 2021 …
Hello and happy Groundhog Day to each of you! I’m obviously no match for Punsxutawney Phil (see picture) but, as I will describe in this month’s update, I think we are in for harsh macroeconomic “weather” over the coming months. Current Market Conditions As surmised in last month’s Vailshire client update, it is increasingly obvious that both real economic growth …
To clients and friends of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund: The fourth quarter of 2021 started with a bang before ending with a whimper The Federal Reserve just made a critical policy error, bringing back unpleasant memories of 4Q 2018 Unfavorable economic indicators mean a material shift in investment strategy for Vailshire Partners LP throughout 2022 Performance Review From Bullish …
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to each of you! I hope that each of you has had a fantastic end to 2021, which proved to be yet another interesting and unusual year. Current Market Conditions Inflation appears to have peaked in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is likely to decelerate year-over-year, yet remain relatively high for the first …
Thanksgiving has come and gone and already Christmas carols are playing 24/7 on most radio stations! The holiday season is upon us. I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions After approximately 18 months of accelerating inflation, my data suggests that the United States may have peaked in this 4th quarter of 2021. Going forward, I expect …
It’s hard to believe that November is already here. Thanksgiving and much colder temperatures (at least here in Colorado) are just around the corner! I hope all is well with you. Current Market Conditions As expected from Vailshire’s prior market forecast, the September doldrums gave way to October optimism. At the time, many hedge funds and other large institutional investors …
Dear client or friend of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund, The third quarter of 2021 was volatile across most asset classes. After a solid performance in July and August, September ended (as expected) with a thud. Read on to see how our fund performed, as well as our outlook for the coming months! Current Market Conditions From Indecisive to Decisively …
Happy Autumn! The leaves are just starting to change color here in the Springs and the weather remains beautiful. It’s hard to find anything to complain about. I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions Inflation continues to remain frustratingly high and is even accelerating… it looks less and less “transitory” by the day. This has specific …
To Separately Managed Account Clients of Vailshire Capital Management The intense August heat is already a distant memory here in Colorado Springs. Much to their chagrin, our kids have been back in school for several weeks already… Autumn is just around the corner! I hope each of you is doing well. Current Market Conditions The Covid virus is officially endemic, …
