April/May 2021 Update

Happy May Day! I hope each of you is doing well.

Current Market Conditions

We continue to see accelerating GDP and inflation growth here in the US, and throughout much of the world as Covid-related fears and restrictions subside. Most US businesses have been reporting the results of their 1Q 2021, which have been relatively phenomenal… as we expected.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have been hitting all time highs, which has translated into solid performances within our portfolios.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been in a sideways zig-zagging trading pattern since mid-February, and actually ended slightly lower in the month of April–a rarity during a raging bull market. Based on historical performance, macroeconomic indicators, and on-chain analytics, I expect the price of bitcoin to do extremely well in the coming 1-2 months.

US and international equities, as well as inflation-sensitive commodities, are also primed for continued gains, barring any unexpected changes to underlying metrics. The wisest course of action remains “risk on” throughout our portfolios.

Strategies for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Accounts

My assessment has not changed over the last several months: I continue to believe that now is the time to be aggressively positioned for significant investment profits. This means, as in prior months, adding new cash to our accounts when applicable and being almost fully invested (very low cash positions) across our Vailshire portfolios.

Bitcoin, in particular, and its distant cousins, altcoins (Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies), should continue to outperform nearly all asset classes in the near-term.

Depending on your financial objectives and individual account investment privileges, Vailshire’s separately managed accounts are currently allocated in the following manner:

  • 32-45% US stocks (large, mid, and small caps, including technology and energy stocks)
  • 10% Emerging market stocks
  • 3-10% Cash
  • 30-50% Bitcoin, Ethereum and/or Cryptocurrency proxies (based on personal preference and trading permissions)
  • 5% Commodity-based equities

If you are a Vailshire Client, feel free to log into your Vailshire-managed account(s) at Interactive Brokers and see how your own portfolios are positioned. (It’s a good idea to log into your accounts at least quarterly, just to make sure your settings and demographics are up to date.)


Vailshire’s data-driven, full-cycle investment portfolios continue to perform quite well and are positioned for healthy gains in the coming months.

My real-time research indicates that now is the time to remain aggressive across our portfolios, which is what we continue to do. When the time comes to get defensive, we will adjust accordingly. But, in the meantime, let’s continue to make hay while the sun shines!

As an aside, I have been humbled by the many new referrals and recent additions to the Vailshire investment family. Thank you!

Please know that I am continually honored by the trust you place in me as a portfolio manager and investment advisor. I take this role very seriously, and plan on doing so for many decades to come, God-willing.

Living well and investing wisely with you,

Jeff Ross, MD, MBA